Which macOS can your Mac actually run?
Apple publishes one list per macOS release: the Macs it runs on. That list, not a blog post and not a forum thread, is the only thing that decides whether your machine can install a version. This page explains how to read it for your own Mac and what the answer means.
Step one: find out exactly which Mac you have
Open the Apple menu, then About This Mac. The window shows three things you need: the marketing name (for example, MacBook Pro 14-inch), the year, and the chip. On Intel machines it also shows a processor line. On Apple Silicon it shows the chip family.
For anything published before the About This Mac window carried that much detail, the model identifier matters more than the marketing year: two machines sold in the same year can have different identifiers and different support windows.
Step two: read the compatibility list, not the marketing page
Apple maintains a support article per major release listing supported Macs by family and year. Read the list for the exact version you intend to install, not the version you are on, and not the one you heard about.
Two failure modes are common. The first is reading a list for the previous release and assuming the next one will match. The second is reading a third-party summary written at launch and never updated. Apple occasionally adds a model mid-cycle and removes support only at the annual boundary, so the authoritative list is the one to check.
What the ceiling means on Intel
macOS 26 is the last major release that runs on Intel Macs, and only four Intel models are supported by it. If you are on an Intel Mac, your machine has a maximum version, and that maximum is not going to move. This is not a bug and there is no workaround: an unsupported Mac cannot install a release that does not include drivers for its hardware.
The practical consequence is that the question "should I upgrade" becomes "when do I stop receiving security updates", because after the last supported release you keep the machine but stop getting fixes.
Step three: check the apps, not just the OS
A Mac that can run the release can still fail your working day, because the operating system is only half of the stack. Check the vendors of anything you rely on for money: accounting, design, audio, development, virtualisation. Each of them publishes a supported-versus-OS table, and each of them is slower to update than Apple.
If you cannot tell
Run the readiness check on this site: it takes five answers and returns your ceiling and a risk level. If the answer still feels uncertain, the safe move is to install nothing until you have a bootable installer of your current version and a backup you have actually restored from.
What this page will not do
It will not tell you the launch date of the next release or which Macs it will support, because those change and a stale page is worse than no page. It also will not tell you that an unsupported machine is unusable: it will keep working, without security updates, which is a different decision entirely.